The sidebar count and the moderator view are not the same reading, and only one of them matters here.
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The figure a visitor sees in the sidebar and the one available to you as a moderator are compiled differently and refresh on different schedules. If you record one and later check the other, the difference you get describes the discrepancy rather than the order. Pick the visitor view and take both readings there.
Record the figure and the time before ordering, let the window close, and take one look from a browser where you are not signed in. Once is enough; at this size the noise between repeated checks is larger than the change you are looking for.
Twenty is plainly visible on a community that has just been created and close to invisible on one with several thousand members. Both readings are normal and neither says anything about the delivery. On the larger side, the order status is the more dependable confirmation and the sidebar is a bonus.
Short answers to what people ask most before ordering.